FW: Healthcare Industry Insights: Value-Based Care (VBC) Industry Update

William Blair
James Thornton
Partner
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LorientCapital
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From: Ryan Daniels - William Blair <rmail@williamblair.com>
Sent: Wednesday, November 26, 2025 5:01 AM
To: James Thornton <james@lorientcap.com>
Subject: Healthcare Industry Insights: Value-Based Care (VBC) Industry Update
William Blair
Equity Research
Healthcare — Healthcare Services
Ryan Daniels, CFA
+1 312 364 8418
rdaniels@williamblair.com
Jared Haase, CFA
+1 312 364 5135
jhaase@williamblair.com
Matthew Mardula
+1 312 364 5385
mmardula@williamblair.com
Healthcare Industry Insights: Value-Based Care (VBC) Industry Update
Industry Insights is our newest research product, where we review recent data points (channel conversations, competitor calls, industry reports, survey work, regulatory updates, etc.) related
to various subsectors within our healthcare services, healthcare delivery, and HCIT coverage universes.
Highlighted/Relevant Companies Related to this
Industry Insights: Value-based care enablers, pay-viders, and advanced primary care providers, such as agilon
health (AGL), Alignment Healthcare (ALHC), Astrana Health (ASTH),
and Privia Health (PRVA), as well as private operators in the
specialty care management space.
VBC Industry Update: In this
Industry Insights, we highlight a recently released report from McKinsey & Company (downloadable
via this link), which analyzes four types of outcome-focused care delivery models that the firm believes have the potential to improve quality and reduce costs across the U.S. healthcare system.
Key insights from the report include the following:
Shifting-sites-of-care models hold promise for moving surgical care from high-cost hospital settings to lower-cost
options such as surgery centers and home health. These models can help reduce unit costs, maintain or enhance quality, and boost patient satisfaction through more convenient, comfortable care environments. Based on McKinsey research, these models can reduce
total costs of care by 8% to 10%.
Second, payer-led models focused on analyzing patient data, performing predictive analytics, and generating actionable care delivery insights
appear to hold significant promise, and these solutions have proved effective at scale. Here, the report notes that by enabling targeted interventions and better managing chronic conditions, payers can lower the total cost of care by 2% to 3%.
Third, the report highlights
primary-care-focused VBC models as holding significant potential, with the longer-term opportunity to reduce total costs of care by 6% to 10%, by more actively providing care management and
comprehensive care solutions (especially for seniors).
Lastly, the report assessed the opportunity for
specialty care models that focus on complex disease states (nephrology, cardiology, MSK, etc.) to materially bend the cost trend by reducing diagnostic intensity, improving treatment selection,
selecting lower-cost sites of care, and preventing complications. The report highlights oncology (15% to 17% total savings opportunity), nephrology (25% to 27%), and MSK (5% to 7%) as several of the largest specialty care VBC opportunities.
View
the Full Report
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